arena: calibrated quick-follow ratio from arrival times; blank cells stay blank #16

Merged
grenade merged 2 commits from arena/leaderboard-calibrated into main 2026-09-04 06:05:55 +00:00

2 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Rob Thijssen
4125340be7 arena: arrival-time gap histogram; quick-follow ratio uses it; 1 s poll
Author timestamps are set when the node builds the proposal, right after
the previous block arrives, so gaps between author timestamps measure
proposal timing and flagged our own honest node at 2.8x the network's
quick-follow share. Withheld blocks show in arrival timing instead:
quantus_block_arrival_gap_seconds uses the exporter's observation time
(poll interval now 1 s; telemetry first-seen replaces it under #11). The
leaderboard's quick-follow column and the Author timing panel now use it,
with a 2 s window to sit above the poll resolution.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CBgs2nSi4H2mdh8kD8vMX5
2026-09-04 09:05:28 +03:00
Rob Thijssen
1d1b8d19de dashboard: quick-follow ratio instead of gap p10; transparent base so empty cells stay empty
For a Poisson block process the 10th-percentile gap of an honest author is
about one second by construction, so a fixed threshold flagged everyone.
quick-follow x is the share of an author's blocks arriving within 1 s of
the previous block divided by the network's share: 1 is normal, 2 or more
is withheld-block behaviour; needs 10 samples. Bucket boundaries are
selected as le="1.0" (Prometheus 3 normalises them to float strings).
Threshold bases are transparent so authors without samples show blank
cells, not red or blue.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CBgs2nSi4H2mdh8kD8vMX5
2026-09-04 09:04:27 +03:00