feat: mining efficiency panels, and say what they cannot measure

Adds a Mining efficiency row: mining rounds started per minute, hashes
per mining round, and active jobs over time.

These are proxies, not the answer. Neither binary exports what the
question actually needs -- quantus-node has no difficulty metric and no
authored-block counter (substrate_proposer_block_constructed counts
proposals constructed, not rounds won), and quantus-miner has no
solutions-found counter. So authored-blocks-vs-expected-share cannot be
plotted, and a panel implying otherwise would be worse than none.

A text panel on the row states that plainly rather than leaving someone
to infer a conclusion the data does not support. lair/quantus#1 tracks
closing the gap -- a chain-query exporter counting blocks credited to
the reward address is the cheapest route -- and the experiments that
depend on it.

asset/grafana/quantus.json

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
   ],
   "timezone": "browser",
   "schemaVersion": 39,
-  "version": 1,
+  "version": 2,
   "refresh": "30s",
   "time": {
     "from": "now-6h",
@@ -1073,6 +1073,191 @@
         }
       },
       "description": "Counter derivative \u2014 the honest check that work is being done, independent of the reported gauge."
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "row",
+      "title": "Mining efficiency",
+      "collapsed": false,
+      "gridPos": {
+        "h": 1,
+        "w": 24,
+        "x": 0,
+        "y": 33
+      },
+      "panels": []
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "timeseries",
+      "title": "Mining rounds started (per min)",
+      "datasource": {
+        "type": "prometheus",
+        "uid": "prometheus"
+      },
+      "gridPos": {
+        "h": 8,
+        "w": 8,
+        "x": 0,
+        "y": 34
+      },
+      "targets": [
+        {
+          "datasource": {
+            "type": "prometheus",
+            "uid": "prometheus"
+          },
+          "editorMode": "code",
+          "expr": "sum(rate(substrate_proposer_block_constructed_count{job=\"quantus-node\"}[5m])) * 60",
+          "legendFormat": "rounds/min",
+          "range": true,
+          "refId": "A"
+        }
+      ],
+      "fieldConfig": {
+        "defaults": {
+          "custom": {
+            "lineWidth": 2,
+            "fillOpacity": 8,
+            "showPoints": "never"
+          },
+          "color": {
+            "mode": "palette-classic"
+          },
+          "unit": "none"
+        },
+        "overrides": []
+      },
+      "options": {
+        "legend": {
+          "displayMode": "list",
+          "placement": "bottom",
+          "showLegend": true
+        },
+        "tooltip": {
+          "mode": "multi",
+          "sort": "desc"
+        }
+      },
+      "description": "Each new best tip makes the node construct a fresh block proposal and hand the miner a new job. Once synced this should track the network's block rate \u2014 about 10/min at a 6s target. Persistently below that means the node is learning about tips late, which is the connectivity effect peer count is supposed to improve. Near zero while syncing is normal: the node does not author until it is caught up."
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "timeseries",
+      "title": "Hashes per mining round",
+      "datasource": {
+        "type": "prometheus",
+        "uid": "prometheus"
+      },
+      "gridPos": {
+        "h": 8,
+        "w": 8,
+        "x": 8,
+        "y": 34
+      },
+      "targets": [
+        {
+          "datasource": {
+            "type": "prometheus",
+            "uid": "prometheus"
+          },
+          "editorMode": "code",
+          "expr": "sum(rate(miner_hashes_total{job=\"quantus-miner\"}[5m])) / sum(rate(substrate_proposer_block_constructed_count{job=\"quantus-node\"}[5m]))",
+          "legendFormat": "hashes/round",
+          "range": true,
+          "refId": "A"
+        }
+      ],
+      "fieldConfig": {
+        "defaults": {
+          "custom": {
+            "lineWidth": 2,
+            "fillOpacity": 8,
+            "showPoints": "never"
+          },
+          "color": {
+            "mode": "palette-classic"
+          },
+          "unit": "short"
+        },
+        "overrides": []
+      },
+      "options": {
+        "legend": {
+          "displayMode": "list",
+          "placement": "bottom",
+          "showLegend": true
+        },
+        "tooltip": {
+          "mode": "multi",
+          "sort": "desc"
+        }
+      },
+      "description": "Work completed per round. Expected hashes per block is the network difficulty, so hashes-per-round \u00f7 difficulty is the per-round win probability \u2014 but difficulty is NOT exported by either binary, so that division cannot be plotted. Absolute value is still useful as a trend: a fall means rounds are being cut short by incoming tips."
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "timeseries",
+      "title": "Active jobs",
+      "datasource": {
+        "type": "prometheus",
+        "uid": "prometheus"
+      },
+      "gridPos": {
+        "h": 8,
+        "w": 8,
+        "x": 16,
+        "y": 34
+      },
+      "targets": [
+        {
+          "datasource": {
+            "type": "prometheus",
+            "uid": "prometheus"
+          },
+          "editorMode": "code",
+          "expr": "miner_active_jobs{job=\"quantus-miner\"}",
+          "legendFormat": "{{instance}}",
+          "range": true,
+          "refId": "A"
+        }
+      ],
+      "fieldConfig": {
+        "defaults": {
+          "custom": {
+            "lineWidth": 2,
+            "fillOpacity": 8,
+            "showPoints": "never"
+          },
+          "color": {
+            "mode": "palette-classic"
+          },
+          "unit": "none"
+        },
+        "overrides": []
+      },
+      "options": {
+        "legend": {
+          "displayMode": "list",
+          "placement": "bottom",
+          "showLegend": true
+        },
+        "tooltip": {
+          "mode": "multi",
+          "sort": "desc"
+        }
+      },
+      "description": "Jobs in flight. Should be continuously non-zero once the node is synced. Gaps mean the miner is idle \u2014 either the node has no work, or the QUIC link dropped."
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "text",
+      "title": "What this row cannot tell you yet",
+      "gridPos": {
+        "h": 6,
+        "w": 24,
+        "x": 0,
+        "y": 42
+      },
+      "options": {
+        "mode": "markdown",
+        "content": "**Blocks actually authored is not observable from these exporters.**\n\n`quantus-node` exports no difficulty metric and no authored-block counter \u2014 `substrate_proposer_block_constructed` counts proposals *constructed*, not rounds *won*. `quantus-miner` exports no solutions-found counter either (`miner_hashes_total`, `miner_hash_rate`, `miner_active_jobs`, worker/device gauges, and nothing else).\n\nSo the question worth answering \u2014 *do we win the share of blocks our hashrate predicts?* \u2014 cannot currently be plotted. That ratio is the real measure of orphan and stale-work loss, and therefore the only honest test of whether tuning peer count or anything else helped.\n\nClosing that gap needs one of: an upstream metric for difficulty and blocks authored, a log-derived exporter, or a periodic chain query counting blocks credited to the reward address. Tracked in the repo's issues \u2014 read that before drawing conclusions from the panels above."
+      }
     }
   ]
 }

readme.md

@@ -97,6 +97,14 @@ instead of every project editing one file, and `grafana.container` gained a
 dashboards bind mount — it previously mounted only the datasource. Both are
 additive, guarded, and back up what they touch.
 
+**What the dashboard cannot tell you:** neither binary exports a difficulty
+metric or an authored-block counter, and the miner exports no solutions-found
+counter — so "do we win the share of blocks our hashrate predicts?", the only
+honest measure of orphan and stale-work loss, is not plottable today. The
+"Mining efficiency" row shows the measurable proxies and says so explicitly.
+Closing that gap, and the experiments that depend on it, are tracked in
+[issue #1](https://git.lair.cafe/lair/quantus/issues/1).
+
 The dashboard is provisioned with `allowUiUpdates: false`: edit the JSON here and
 redeploy, so a browser tweak cannot silently diverge from source.