fix: a miner's balance is a receipt total, and the supply figures were wrong
Two claims this repository shipped, both disproved by measuring mainnet. **A mining address is keyless, so its balance can only rise.** `retained` was documented here as "the one measure privacy cannot hide", reasoning that a payment debits the account whichever route it takes. It does not. `mining-rewards` pays `derive_wormhole_address(preimage)`, which no Dilithium keypair signs for, and `Wormhole::credit_and_record` credits an exit's destination with `Unbalanced::increase_balance` while never debiting the note's source. QUANPOOL's balance rose at all twelve samples between blocks 1,000 and 42,400 and fell at none, nonce 0 throughout — as every miner's must. So `retained` read ~100% for everyone because it had to, and a number identical for all reads as an accusation aimed at whoever mined most. The column is gone, `balance` is `received`, and the table says plainly that a pool paying out in full and one paying nothing produce the same row. **Four empty lock maps are not "nothing is withheld".** Locks, Holds, Freezes and Reserves are all empty — counted, not assumed — and the network page concluded circulating equals total issuance. Wrong by a factor of 436: this runtime vests from a *pot*, not with locks, and `modlqvesting` holds 5,669,940 QTC, 99.54% of every unit of balance on the chain. The page now reports the pot and issuance-minus-pot, and still declines the word "circulating" because the release schedule is not read here. The pot address is derived from `Vesting::PalletId` in metadata rather than a hard-coded `qvesting`: it is a consequence of a runtime constant, and a runtime that changed it would leave the site reporting an empty pot while looking perfectly healthy. Both steps are pinned against the real mainnet metadata fixture. Also recorded: never sum account balances and call it supply. They exceed `TotalIssuance` by 13,427 QTC at block 42,400 and by exactly zero at genesis, bisecting to block 4,800 and a `verify_public_batch` — private value is counted twice by any such total. Single blocks reconcile exactly, so a spot check says everything is fine. Refs #17 Closes #19 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Claude Opus 5
@@ -30,34 +30,6 @@ import { height as fmtHeight, share as fmtShare, shortAddress, tokens } from '..
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import { href } from '../lib/routes'
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import type { Window as WindowName } from '../api/generated/Window'
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/**
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* Balance as a percentage of everything the chain has paid an address.
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*
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* **The one measure here that privacy cannot hide.** A wormhole transfer does
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* not record its sender, so `sent visibly` is blind to the very mechanism a
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* wormhole-held balance would use to pay out — 9,894 such transfers reached 654
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* recipients on mainnet with no sender recorded at all. But a payment still
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* debits the account, so a balance that has not fallen is a balance nothing has
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* left, by any route, private or otherwise.
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*
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* Above 100% means the address also received from somewhere besides mining.
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*/
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function retained(mined: string | null, balance: string | null): string {
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if (mined === null || balance === null) return '—'
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let held: bigint
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let paid: bigint
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try {
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held = BigInt(balance)
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paid = BigInt(mined)
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} catch {
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return '—'
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}
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// Nothing mined is not zero retention, it is a ratio with no denominator —
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// and most accounts that distribute widely on this chain mined nothing at all.
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if (paid === 0n) return '—'
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return `${Number((held * 1000n) / paid) / 10}%`
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}
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export function DistributionPanel({
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chain,
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window: windowName,
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@@ -117,12 +89,11 @@ export function DistributionPanel({
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</th>
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<th scope="col">Share</th>
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<th scope="col">Mined</th>
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<th scope="col">Holds</th>
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<th
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scope="col"
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title="Balance as a percentage of everything the chain has paid this address. The one column privacy cannot hide: a payout debits the account whether or not its sender was recorded."
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title="Everything ever credited to this address. A mining address is keyless, so nothing can transfer out of it and this number can only rise — it is a receipt total, not a holding."
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>
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Retained
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Received
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</th>
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<th
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scope="col"
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@@ -153,8 +124,7 @@ export function DistributionPanel({
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</td>
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<td className="numeral">{fmtShare(m.share)}</td>
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<td className="numeral">{amount(m.mined)}</td>
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<td className="numeral">{amount(m.balance)}</td>
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<td className="numeral">{retained(m.mined, m.balance)}</td>
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<td className="numeral">{amount(m.received)}</td>
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<td className="numeral">{amount(m.flows?.sent)}</td>
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<td className="numeral">{recipients === null ? '—' : fmtHeight(recipients)}</td>
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</tr>
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@@ -174,17 +144,30 @@ export function DistributionPanel({
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transactions, and the privacy is a feature of the chain rather than a gap in this table.
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</p>
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<p className="panel-note">
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<em>Retained</em> is the column privacy cannot hide. A payment debits the account whichever
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route it takes, so a balance that has not fallen below what the chain paid in is a balance
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nothing has left. Above 100% means the address also received from somewhere other than
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mining. It still cannot tell you whether an operator pays from a different wallet, settles
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off-chain, or is simply a solo miner keeping what it earned — which is the ordinary case,
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and which every mining address on this chain currently resembles.
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<strong>
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There is no column here that can tell you whether a miner is paying out, and there cannot
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be.
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</strong>{' '}
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The chain pays a mining reward to an address derived from the miner's own reward
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preimage — a Poseidon hash that no key signs for. Nothing can transfer out of it. The only
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way to move the value is a wormhole exit, which credits its destination{' '}
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<em>without debiting the source</em>. So <em>received</em> is a running total of everything
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ever credited, it rises and never falls, and it does that identically for an operator who
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pays out in full and one who pays out nothing. Measured over all of mainnet's history,
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the largest miner's balance rose at every sample and fell at none.
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</p>
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<p className="panel-note">
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That is also why this table no longer carries a “retained” percentage. It read close to 100%
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for every miner on the chain, because it had to, and a number that is the same for everyone
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reads as an accusation aimed at whoever happens to be at the top — which here is simply
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whoever mined the most. The place any of this is observable is the{' '}
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<Link to={href({ chain, index: 'wormhole' })}>wormhole page</Link>, which counts what has
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gone in and come out without claiming to know who moved it.
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</p>
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<p className="panel-note">
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The names are the weakest column and come from telemetry, not the chain — an operator
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chooses what its node calls itself, so a name containing “pool” is a claim rather than a
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fact. <em>Holds</em> is chain state and is true now, while <em>mined</em>,{' '}
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fact. <em>Received</em> is chain state and is true now, while <em>mined</em>,{' '}
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<em>sent visibly</em> and <em>recipients</em> are counted over the indexed range above; on a
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chain read from genesis those agree, on one still being indexed backwards they do not.
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</p>
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@@ -85,6 +85,15 @@ export function NetworkPanel({
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locks.freezes === 0 &&
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locks.reserves === 0
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// The vesting pot, which on this chain holds almost everything. Rendered as a
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// percentage because two eighteen-digit strings do not compare at a glance,
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// and 99.5% is the whole point.
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const pot = summary.vesting_pot
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const potShare =
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pot && pot.share_bps !== null
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? `${(pot.share_bps / 100).toFixed(pot.share_bps > 9900 ? 2 : 1)}%`
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: null
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const spark = (pick: (d: NetworkSummary['days'][number]) => number, unit: string): SparkPoint[] =>
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summary.days.map((d) => ({
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value: pick(d),
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@@ -120,6 +129,20 @@ export function NetworkPanel({
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value={amount(summary.mined_since_genesis)}
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note="issuance less the endowment"
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/>
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<Field
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label="Held in the vesting pot"
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value={pot ? amount(pot.balance) : '—'}
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note={
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potShare === null
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? 'the vesting pallet\u2019s own account'
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: `${potShare} of issuance`
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}
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/>
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<Field
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label="Issuance outside the pot"
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value={amount(summary.issuance_outside_pot)}
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note="the ceiling on what has been distributed"
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/>
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<Field label="Fees collected" value={amount(summary.collected_fees)} />
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<Field label="Inactive issuance" value={amount(summary.inactive_issuance)} />
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<Field
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@@ -129,13 +152,22 @@ export function NetworkPanel({
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/>
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</div>
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<p className="panel-note">
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{pot && potShare !== null && (
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<>
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<strong>{potShare} of all issuance sits in one account</strong> — {pot.address}, which
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the vesting pallet owns and nobody holds a key to. This runtime vests from a pot
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rather than with locks: undistributed funds wait there and are paid out from it.{' '}
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</>
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)}
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{nothingLocked ? (
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<>
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<strong>Nothing is locked.</strong> All four of the balances pallet's
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immobilising maps — locks, holds, freezes and reserves — are empty, counted rather
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than assumed. Which is why there is no separate “circulating supply” figure here: it
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would equal total issuance exactly, and printing it would assert a distinction this
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chain does not currently make.{' '}
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All four of the balances pallet's immobilising maps — locks, holds, freezes and
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reserves — are empty, counted rather than assumed.{' '}
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<strong>That is not the same as nothing being withheld</strong>: this chain withholds
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with the pot above, which no lock records. There is still no “circulating supply”
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figure here, because funds leave the pot on a schedule this observer does not read and
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an address outside it may be unspendable for other reasons — but issuance alone would
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overstate what is in play by a factor of several hundred.{' '}
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</>
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) : (
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locks && (
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@@ -147,12 +179,14 @@ export function NetworkPanel({
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)}
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{summary.vesting_schedules !== null && summary.vesting_schedules > 0 && (
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<>
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There are {count(summary.vesting_schedules)} vesting schedules, shown as a count
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rather than a sum: this runtime's vesting does not touch the balances
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pallet's locks, so what it holds and when it releases would be a guess without
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reading the pallet's own arithmetic.
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The {count(summary.vesting_schedules)} vesting schedules are a count rather than a
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sum; the sum that matters is the pot, and it is read directly.{' '}
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</>
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)}
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<strong>Account balances are not added up anywhere on this site.</strong> On this chain
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they exceed total issuance and the gap grows: a wormhole exit credits its destination
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without debiting the note's source, so value that moves privately appears twice in
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any such total. Total issuance is the figure that counts each unit once.
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</p>
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</section>
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Block a user